If you’re here, you’re either interested in German politics, data journalism, or both. The Vorcast Model is a prediction model for the German federal elections that is more precise and less noisy than election polls. You can find the latest predictions below. Lastly, you can find my writings about German politics, the election and the polls on my blog.
Latest Predictions
(updated January 15, 2025)
| Party | Vorcast model predictions |
| CDU/CSU | 30.9 |
| SPD | 17.4 |
| AFD | 16.6 |
| Die Grünen | 10.4 |
| FDP | 6.1 |
| BSW | 4.4 |
| Die Linke | 4.6 |
Interactive chart
If you want to see how my forecast has changed over time. you can use the interactive chart below. The thick lines are my model’s predictions for the final vote share. The dots are individual polls and the thin line is a simple 2-week polling average.
The blog
You can find all my writing on the posts page.
The rest
If you’re curious who I am and why I do this, check out the about page.