If you’re here, you’re either interested in German politics, data journalism, or both. The Vorcast Model is a prediction model for the German federal elections that is more precise and less noisy than election polls. You can find the latest predictions below. Lastly, you can find my writings about German politics, the election and the polls on my blog.
Latest Predictions
(updated December 17, 2024)
| Party | Vorcast model predictions |
| CDU/CSU | 31.2 |
| SPD | 17.5 |
| AFD | 15.7 |
| Die Grünen | 9.6 |
| FDP | 6.3 |
| BSW | 5.3 |
| Die Linke | 4.4 |
The thick lines are my model’s predictions for the final vote share. The dots are individual polls and the thin line is a simple 2-week polling average.
You can find an in-depth explanation of how the model works on the model page.
The blog
You can find all my writing on the posts page.
The rest
If you’re curious who I am and why I do this, check out the about page.