In my post from March, I boldly (read: foolishly) staked my claim about how I think the German election will go down. My take hasn’t really changed all that much, though there has been a significant shift in the polling numbers in favor of Die Grüne and away from the CDU/CSU. Time will tell whether the Greens can keep their…
Should Germany care more about polling?
This blog is about polls and forecasting, so what do you think my answer will be to this question? Should Germany care more about polling? Yes, it should, but it should care less about individual polls and more about the aggregate. In this post, I’ll take you through what to be wary of when it comes to individual polls, how…
How Germany will (likely) vote in 2021
I couldn’t have picked a worse year to publish a prediction model for German politics. There’s a global pandemic that continues to produce economic and social contexts that are without historic precedent (and precedent is important in predictions) and it’s the first election in 16 years in which Angela Merkel is not running for chancellor. These two factors are turning…
Welcome to Vorcast
Welcome to Vorcast, my answer to the gap in Germany’s media landscape when it comes to data journalism. In this first post, I’ll introduce the blog, why I created it, and what you’ll find here. A lot of the points I bring up will end up being their own individual posts in the future — but I’ll keep things brief…