I know this is not the most confident headline from a forecaster but I’m trying to be a bit more cautious than in 2021. I wrote some pretty bad takes in the last election cycle. I said for example that the SPD was doomed and the CDU/CSU was a strong favorite to win the election, neither of these came to…
Category: Long-Term Analysis
It’s the CDU/CSU’s election to lose
Sometimes the obvious take is the right take, even though it’s boring. Germans don’t like change. The Christian Democrats have been in charge for the last 16 years and they will almost certainly be in charge after September’s election as well. Get used to saying chancellor Armin Laschet. My model has predicted the CDU/CSU to be the most popular party…
Part II: Why the SPD has made way for Die Grüne
Nerd alert: This is the second article of a two-part series (see the first here). It’s a bit heavier on the statistical vocabulary than other posts on this blog. The Green Sleeper Hit If you’ve already read part 1, you’ve seen this chart. If not, take five and go give it a read. For this second part, we’re going to…
Part I: Why the SPD has made way for Die Grüne
Nerd alert: This is the first article of a two-part series. It is a bit more heavy on the statistical vocabulary than other posts on this blog. You have been warned. The downfall of the SPD The chart above explains one of the most important developments in German politics over the past 27 years. Read on because it’s going to…