Model, Polling average

The 2025 edition of the Vorcast model

If there’s one thing I was not in the mood for after the US election in November 2024, it was another high-stakes election – but here we are. The unpopular German “Traffic Light” coalition collapsed and a new federal election is expected to take place on February 23, 2025, seven months before the regularly scheduled election was to take place.…

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Model, Polling average, State of the race

The wild (by German standards) election of 2021

It’s always funny to me how quickly an election becomes a distant memory. The clarity that follows election results makes all the pontification, prophesying, and predicting beforehand seem immediately ancient.  The big takeaway from the 2021 election is that the polls were quite good. They were also extremely sensitive — both over and under emphasizing shifts in the electorate. Additionally,…

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Introduction, Model

Welcome to Vorcast

Welcome to Vorcast, my answer to the gap in Germany’s media landscape when it comes to data journalism.  In this first post, I’ll introduce the blog, why I created it, and what you’ll find here. A lot of the points I bring up will end up being their own individual posts in the future — but I’ll keep things brief…

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