It’s always funny to me how quickly an election becomes a distant memory. The clarity that follows election results makes all the pontification, prophesying, and predicting beforehand seem immediately ancient. The big takeaway from the 2021 election is that the polls were quite good. They were also extremely sensitive — both over and under emphasizing shifts in the electorate. Additionally,…
Category: Polling average
Part II: Why the SPD has made way for Die Grüne
Nerd alert: This is the second article of a two-part series (see the first here). It’s a bit heavier on the statistical vocabulary than other posts on this blog. The Green Sleeper Hit If you’ve already read part 1, you’ve seen this chart. If not, take five and go give it a read. For this second part, we’re going to…
Part I: Why the SPD has made way for Die Grüne
Nerd alert: This is the first article of a two-part series. It is a bit more heavy on the statistical vocabulary than other posts on this blog. You have been warned. The downfall of the SPD The chart above explains one of the most important developments in German politics over the past 27 years. Read on because it’s going to…
Should Germany care more about polling?
This blog is about polls and forecasting, so what do you think my answer will be to this question? Should Germany care more about polling? Yes, it should, but it should care less about individual polls and more about the aggregate. In this post, I’ll take you through what to be wary of when it comes to individual polls, how…