Model, Polling average

The 2025 edition of the Vorcast model

If there’s one thing I was not in the mood for after the US election in November 2024, it was another high-stakes election – but here we are. The unpopular German “Traffic Light” coalition collapsed and a new federal election is expected to take place on February 23, 2025, seven months before the regularly scheduled election was to take place.…

Continue Reading

Model, Polling average, State of the race

The wild (by German standards) election of 2021

It’s always funny to me how quickly an election becomes a distant memory. The clarity that follows election results makes all the pontification, prophesying, and predicting beforehand seem immediately ancient.  The big takeaway from the 2021 election is that the polls were quite good. They were also extremely sensitive — both over and under emphasizing shifts in the electorate. Additionally,…

Continue Reading

Polling average

Should Germany care more about polling?

This blog is about polls and forecasting, so what do you think my answer will be to this question?  Should Germany care more about polling? Yes, it should, but it should care less about individual polls and more about the aggregate. In this post, I’ll take you through what to be wary of when it comes to individual polls, how…

Continue Reading