I know this is not the most confident headline from a forecaster but I’m trying to be a bit more cautious than in 2021. I wrote some pretty bad takes in the last election cycle. I said for example that the SPD was doomed and the CDU/CSU was a strong favorite to win the election, neither of these came to…
Category: Polling average
The 2025 edition of the Vorcast model
If there’s one thing I was not in the mood for after the US election in November 2024, it was another high-stakes election – but here we are. The unpopular German “Traffic Light” coalition collapsed and a new federal election is expected to take place on February 23, 2025, seven months before the regularly scheduled election was to take place.…
The wild (by German standards) election of 2021
It’s always funny to me how quickly an election becomes a distant memory. The clarity that follows election results makes all the pontification, prophesying, and predicting beforehand seem immediately ancient. The big takeaway from the 2021 election is that the polls were quite good. They were also extremely sensitive — both over and under emphasizing shifts in the electorate. Additionally,…
Part II: Why the SPD has made way for Die Grüne
Nerd alert: This is the second article of a two-part series (see the first here). It’s a bit heavier on the statistical vocabulary than other posts on this blog. The Green Sleeper Hit If you’ve already read part 1, you’ve seen this chart. If not, take five and go give it a read. For this second part, we’re going to…
Part I: Why the SPD has made way for Die Grüne
Nerd alert: This is the first article of a two-part series. It is a bit more heavy on the statistical vocabulary than other posts on this blog. You have been warned. The downfall of the SPD The chart above explains one of the most important developments in German politics over the past 27 years. Read on because it’s going to…
Should Germany care more about polling?
This blog is about polls and forecasting, so what do you think my answer will be to this question? Should Germany care more about polling? Yes, it should, but it should care less about individual polls and more about the aggregate. In this post, I’ll take you through what to be wary of when it comes to individual polls, how…